Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2065614552e9ccb7438520e7af6991810214c500156d4441557016e9f3be1add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 51c | 10,058$5,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,093.59 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 7,287$3,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,637.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 49c | 7,022$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,582.93 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 35c | 960.42$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.92 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 47c | 898.46$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.83 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 879.68$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…d045backed Yes | 35c | 856.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 747.07$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 2c | 712.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…cbc8backed Yes | 34c | 581.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 74c | 568.17$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 41c | 500$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 461.83$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.54 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 46c | 434.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 64c | 423.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 404.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 53c | 383.13$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 378.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.92 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 376$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 362.51$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 344.16$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 309.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 307$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed No | 54c | 290.02$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 289$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 283.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 263.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 61c | 233$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 232.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 220.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 211.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 54c | 201$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 34c | 199.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 48c | 198.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 32c | 185.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 184.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 184.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 180.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 161.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 155$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…806ebacked No | 26c | 154.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 150.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 149.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 141.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 77c | 130.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 129.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 52c | 126.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 106.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 64c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 105.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 105.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 38c | 103.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 100.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 44c | 99.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 48c | 97.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 56c | 93.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 68c | 92.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 89.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 44c | 89.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 88.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 87.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 70c | 83.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 31c | 75.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 46c | 74.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 34c | 73.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 72.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 61c | 72.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 46c | 69.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 68.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 67.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 50c | 66.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 66.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 34c | 64.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 61.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 65c | 61.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 43c | 60.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 44c | 60.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 60.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed Yes | 36c | 57.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.