Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17165d1aa896ec17fb910fb9a74c88a1a84013a09d744b9455c3d43292561d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f72…806ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,903$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 1,209$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.88 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 36c | 1,076$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.73 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 40c | 857.07$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 822.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 750$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 683.73$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 657.76$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 39c | 624.61$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 559.08$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 541.62$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 537.57$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 35c | 500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 422.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 56c | 411.26$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 399.09$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 363.4$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 74c | 317.95$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…75e8backed Yes | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 307$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 302.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 289.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 263.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 257.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 53c | 257.31$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 248.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 243.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 228$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 50c | 188$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 187.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 181.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 55c | 170.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 169.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 35c | 158.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 154.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 140.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 125.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 124.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 123.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 121.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 114.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 110.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 59c | 106.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 106.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 52c | 100.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 37c | 99.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed Yes | 42c | 93.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 41c | 91.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 82.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 30c | 81.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 79.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 79.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 78.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 40c | 66.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 41c | 65.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed No | 51c | 65.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 75c | 64.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 63.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…115ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 60.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…6fe1backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 58.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 45c | 57.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 20c | 55.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 53.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 58c | 50.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.