Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209cca6195143fd36a0094c7bb0a9f3347c941e3fc1b83127b9473bafd5aab96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 41c | 3,463$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 1,418$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.57 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,273$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.78 | 1,933 | 45.3%876 W · 1,057 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 971.03$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 1,426 | 40.8%582 W · 844 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Under | 51c | 951.57$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 31c | 950.82$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 28c | 683.43$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 580$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 444$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.28 | 312 | 48.1%150 W · 162 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 408.9$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 28c | 378.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.42 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 38c | 319.24$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 55c | 291.9$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 270 | 46.3%125 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 27c | 191.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 25c | 191$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 179.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 332 | 44.9%149 W · 183 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 34c | 141.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…7543backed Over | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 123.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 106.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 467 | 50.1%234 W · 233 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 59c | 91.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 41c | 83.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 73c | 80.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 23c | 74.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Over | 77c | 68.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 66c | 59.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 64c | 38.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 64c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 64c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 64c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-2.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.