Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2160c9656e3d1813d77bdfb5708f0f61f4845402c699fb33dce1f3ff86b681d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 29c | 298.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed No | 71c | 264.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 222.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 24c | 211.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 196.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 156.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 41c | 123.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 111.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 104.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 31c | 104.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 97.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 39c | 97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 68.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 28c | 65.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 77c | 65.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 67c | 64.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 64.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 26c | 56.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 66c | 56.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…c7f8backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1ef9backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 47.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 43.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 40.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 30c | 34.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 34.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked No | 62c | 33.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 31.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 33c | 31.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 27.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb08…0bc6backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 59c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed No | 62c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 67c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.