Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dffe1e7a3343a1da5e1bdb0596e8f6db6254744880a6e0d614365e022535a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 77c | 390.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 250.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 191.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 150.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 149.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 143$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 139.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 113.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 105.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 97.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…17b5backed Yes | 77c | 91.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 85.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 81.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 40c | 74.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 62.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 58.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 74c | 57.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 38c | 52.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 39c | 50.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 47.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 64c | 44.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 41.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 40.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 37c | 39.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 38.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 33.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 33.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…0eebbacked Yes | 78c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.