NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Texans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216c3740661ac7f68a60c329fb7ee648553b995b04efa865d7e1c1388c46acb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Colts, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Texans | 73c | 10,196$7,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.15 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Texans | 57c | 8,785$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,784.65 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…ce3bbacked Texans | 63c | 6,010$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Colts | 40c | 5,953$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.95 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed Colts | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Colts | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.96 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Colts | 39c | 4,700$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Texans | 58c | 4,208$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.49 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Colts | 38c | 3,138$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Colts | 35c | 2,984$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.75 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…a205backed Texans | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Texans | 58c | 2,381$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.03 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Texans | 58c | 1,507$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.83 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Colts | 42c | 1,465$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.83 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Colts | 41c | 856.76$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Colts | 34c | 682.21$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Texans | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Colts | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Texans | 60c | 563$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Texans | 60c | 560.63$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Colts | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Colts | 43c | 420$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Texans | 57c | 351.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Texans | 17c | 302.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Texans | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Texans | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed Texans | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Texans | 58c | 291$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…095fbacked Colts | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Colts | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -85%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Texans | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Texans | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Colts | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Colts | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Colts | 41c | 228.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Texans | 78c | 207.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Texans | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 280 | 35%98 W · 182 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Colts | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Texans | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Colts | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Colts | 22c | 184.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Texans | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…afafbacked Colts | 41c | 151.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Colts | 43c | 136.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Texans | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Texans | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Texans | 56c | 108$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 315 | 40%126 W · 189 L | -15.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Texans | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Colts | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Texans | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…4032backed Texans | 62c | 87.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Colts | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…5b3fbacked Texans | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…de75backed Colts | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Colts | 26c | 84.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Texans | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Colts | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3184…d7c4backed Colts | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Colts | 41c | 63.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…89b5backed Texans | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Colts | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…778ebacked Texans | 57c | 56.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdd…c6c3backed Texans | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…5e60backed Texans | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Colts | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Texans | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Colts | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Texans | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…a858backed Texans | 59c | 46.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0d…8b53backed Texans | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Texans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…9ca2backed Colts | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…6df6backed Texans | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Texans | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…3ce8backed Texans | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Texans | 58c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Texans | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Texans | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Texans | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Texans | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.