NBA · resolved market
Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21764765b705e734f2fc7ea726108ad584b6424b1004fde4d201e117e4d92538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,920 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 69c | 2,464$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.64 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Yes | 29c | 1,078$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 71c | 762.28$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.22 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…4031backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 31c | 651.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.13 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3337…1cd4backed Yes | 29c | 621.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 566.13$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.63 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 40c | 198.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 187.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…92d8backed Yes | 29c | 173.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 29c | 163.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…337abacked Yes | 30c | 148.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Yes | 27c | 102.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…9bdfbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes | 62c | 77.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 72c | 69.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…10dcbacked Yes | 29c | 69.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Yes | 37c | 66.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2bd2backed Yes | 28c | 66.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 69c | 56.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 29c | 55.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 38c | 46.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…9797backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 73c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bulls won
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. BullsBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Nick Richards: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-7.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.