TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Bulls, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,096 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies45c8,226$3,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,737.884,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bulls52c6,711$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.4932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls53c5,968$3,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.611,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e7…79f1backed Grizzlies48c5,775$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Grizzlies44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20020355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls54c4,385$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.141,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies44c3,868$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Bulls55c2,397$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.6513946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls58c2,058$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Grizzlies46c1,468$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.5545151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies44c1,464$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.624,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Grizzlies48c1,388$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6667439.2%29 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bulls53c1,353$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.722,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Bulls58c988.1$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4151,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Bulls52c817.7$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.31,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies46c776.02$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.944,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies44c710.54$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.216,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies44c600.07$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Bulls56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.717460.8%45 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x515f…7e7fbacked Bulls56c499.89$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.954639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies45c483.55$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Grizzlies47c482$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c2…8f23backed Grizzlies44c422.77$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.021435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Grizzlies45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18077549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Grizzlies45c311.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Grizzlies44c275.27$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.121,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Grizzlies44c257.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1317144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Grizzlies44c243.1$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9626638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Bulls51c242.41$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8442153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Bulls56c241.02$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0558450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Grizzlies44c226.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Grizzlies45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies47c191.59$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.763,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Bulls53c188.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.679159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90cc…5d9cbacked Grizzlies48c186$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies44c173$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.121,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4774…1809backed Grizzlies47c167$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Bulls60c165.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5946346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.295548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c14…2f42backed Grizzlies48c158$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x210e…3a66backed Grizzlies48c158$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bulls54c104.07$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8751438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Bulls56c103.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7320762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Bulls56c102.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.976552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Bulls58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4259650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5e…c5c0backed Grizzlies48c81.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.031080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5123…078bbacked Bulls53c78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.66450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…65bbbacked Bulls53c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+53%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Bulls69c72.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.999553.7%51 W · 44 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Grizzlies47c69.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6345653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad4…1be5backed Bulls53c66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5167…9c65backed Bulls53c62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies44c61.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.252,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471e…379abacked Bulls53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c3…af88backed Grizzlies47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Grizzlies46c58.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8420847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls55c55.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.671,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Grizzlies44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.326550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3472…191fbacked Grizzlies48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Grizzlies48c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4838252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies46c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.462,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4460…9b5bbacked Bulls53c50.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Grizzlies46c49.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9829344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2229…00b0backed Bulls53c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Grizzlies47c47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1129645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3049…39cdbacked Bulls53c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies44c45.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.032,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Grizzlies44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017848.3%86 W · 92 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Grizzlies44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013947.5%66 W · 73 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9035…e2d9backed Bulls53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x871c…ccebbacked Bulls53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+87%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Bulls54c44.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4662744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb91…f1edbacked Bulls56c44.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.454969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cb5…2509backed Bulls53c44.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.69560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Bulls54c41.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4821349.3%105 W · 108 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Grizzlies46c40.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.991,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Grizzlies49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015041.3%62 W · 88 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0206…82b5backed Grizzlies46c40.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.767564%48 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bulls54c40.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.712,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Grizzlies49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.616951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Grizzlies45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…4291backed Bulls53c38.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff37…710ebacked Bulls57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.095100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+95.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5ab…582cbacked Bulls53c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bulls51c34.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.791,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6f…f414backed Grizzlies48c33.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.186445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bulls54c32.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Grizzlies48c32.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5895047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9566…d798backed Bulls53c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffa…4734backed Grizzlies47c31.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eab…735fbacked Bulls53c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.57580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls53c30.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.193,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Bulls56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.260267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grizzlies38c29.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.381,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0976…922bbacked Bulls52c28.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f4…48c6backed Bulls53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.313852.9%73 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc6…095fbacked Grizzlies45c27.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510545.7%48 W · 57 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa9…8f8cbacked Bulls57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a63…9664backed Grizzlies46c25.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.