NBA · resolved market
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa804586fbc22a07fcd691fe150c5a21046cdbd5179a17586aef08b570b83e549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,554 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Yes | 2c | 15,819$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 67c | 2,128$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.85 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…4bb2backed Yes | 31c | 1,001$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 60c | 598.49$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…4031backed Yes | 37c | 299.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…8508backed Yes | 33c | 296$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 64c | 148.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…92d8backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 38c | 128.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Yes | 32c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 34c | 72.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bulls won
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. BullsBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Nick Richards: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-7.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.