NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c035e6a964f9302ffb9a9f8a60ba9c08ea8d6da650f8ac1899047c102189ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc167…51b0backed Over | 47c | 5,200$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,781$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 1,249$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Under | 61c | 1,249$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 1,144$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.88 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 629.22$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.78 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 60c | 597.52$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.01 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 590.56$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 586.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.71 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 276.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 61c | 246.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 58c | 222.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Under | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 47c | 109.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 108.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 19c | 103.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…150abacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +10.6wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +232.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 45c | 90.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 56c | 89.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 17c | 88.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…850fbacked Over | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…72bebacked Under | 44c | 85.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 80.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 55c | 74.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 69.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 54c | 65.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 58.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 57.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 42c | 53.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 295 | 56.6%167 W · 128 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Over | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Over | 37c | 47.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 46c | 42.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Over | 59c | 42.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…8be9backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Over | 37c | 42.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…5ce6backed Over | 60c | 41.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 52c | 39.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 62c | 35.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…4dd0backed Over | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc9…7a80backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 31.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 55c | 30.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 53c | 29.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Under | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…7221backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1550…2046backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 55c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 25.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…6d15backed Over | 60c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…b16bbacked Over | 59c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 44c | 23.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…12b4backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bulls won
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. BullsBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Nick Richards: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-7.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.