TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Bulls, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$593,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,514 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59a0…9a09backed Bulls51c172,525$88,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,923.243560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Grizzlies49c156,525$76,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,203.351,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls51c129,150$65,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,283.711,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Grizzlies49c87,642$42,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,539.2823147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Bulls52c83,364$43,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,014.760351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies49c35,892$17,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,487.974,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Grizzlies49c29,288$14,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,350.961,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Grizzlies51c24,395$12,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,441.4430845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Grizzlies49c23,389$11,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,350.7429347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies48c13,233$6,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,363.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bulls49c13,106$6,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,624.61,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Grizzlies48c12,525$6,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,01233447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Grizzlies49c11,468$5,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,619.135754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies49c11,259$5,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.254,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Grizzlies49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bulls51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls51c9,006$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,412.941,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Grizzlies48c8,214$3,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,942.7231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Grizzlies49c7,760$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,802.414245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Grizzlies48c7,623$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.8724942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls51c7,128$3,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.444,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Grizzlies48c6,720$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Bulls54c6,296$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.325945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Grizzlies49c6,122$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls51c6,055$3,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls50c5,964$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.991,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe80…0784backed Grizzlies49c5,959$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9201020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Grizzlies48c5,204$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49818349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bulls52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Bulls52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.981,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls51c4,888$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.484,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Grizzlies51c4,512$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.0224744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies49c4,169$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.332,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bulls52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Grizzlies49c3,710$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,81870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Grizzlies48c3,042$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4749952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Grizzlies48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Bulls53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1956453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Bulls52c2,790$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.227455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls50c2,710$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.693,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Grizzlies49c2,669$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.6836351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…a6c5backed Grizzlies49c2,473$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2125046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Bulls50c2,300$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Grizzlies48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bulls51c2,072$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.271,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Bulls52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96025155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Grizzlies51c2,000$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.9833146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bulls47c1,896$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.512,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Bulls50c1,700$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85015849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Grizzlies48c1,668$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.642,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Grizzlies49c1,667$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.9945151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Bulls53c1,667$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Bulls51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73523644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Grizzlies51c1,439$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.125951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Grizzlies51c1,428$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.219952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Grizzlies51c1,269$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64710556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Grizzlies49c1,126$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.5517144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Bulls52c1,088$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.2420647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Bulls53c1,064$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.1550754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls52c1,037$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.5882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Bulls52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Grizzlies49c868.99$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3918143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Grizzlies47c816.81$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.1426638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Grizzlies49c811.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Bulls53c809.52$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1630453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Bulls53c757.8$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.8548751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls52c708$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ad…915dbacked Bulls51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.244850%24 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Grizzlies49c535.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1158450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Bulls53c526.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0312650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Grizzlies48c502.08$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24113138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Bulls53c479.12$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.2826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Bulls53c388$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3623655.5%131 W · 105 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bulls52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Bulls52c380.93$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.892058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Bulls53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.366266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies49c359.75$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.862,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bulls50c351.07$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5429748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Bulls53c297.48$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8331354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Bulls53c289.16$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7228554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b05…c7febacked Grizzlies49c260.52$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.51080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+51.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe23…e72bbacked Bulls53c250$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0511946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bulls52c234.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5580653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Bulls53c233.85$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.911,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies50c218.54$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.993,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Bulls52c211.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1897049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Grizzlies48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Grizzlies48c206.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10066046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75c…e826backed Grizzlies48c206.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bulls52c202.74$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3757650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83df…362fbacked Bulls52c199.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.262045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc9…c447backed Grizzlies49c198$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.384738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bulls50c197.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1151438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Grizzlies51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Grizzlies53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Bulls53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6819054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Bulls53c188.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4914466%95 W · 49 L+17.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Grizzlies48c176.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8722154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies48c176.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.43,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Bulls52c173.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0842853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.