Fifa International · resolved market
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a57c635b1adfa75e6dc87f48c84aa1f3e0e72241f2d7fb3f65ee2ff8e0ac23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4852…67c4backed No | 63c | 10,494$6,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 57c | 2,067$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.08 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 472 | 35%165 W · 307 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,397$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.27 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…71b4backed No | 60c | 1,325$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.97 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 1,281$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.67 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 1,225$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 1,219$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.07 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,196$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 436 | 35.8%156 W · 280 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…6a9cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,070$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.97 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 53c | 863.83$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.2 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 725.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.41 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 52c | 510.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 48c | 454$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 42c | 410.17$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 45c | 276.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 45c | 261.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…ee7ebacked Yes | 46c | 229.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…aa88backed Yes | 46c | 225.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 56c | 188.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 43c | 187.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0cccbacked Yes | 35c | 149.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Yes | 67c | 149.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 65c | 143.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 79c | 127.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 40c | 107.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 127 | 29.9%38 W · 89 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 102.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5864backed Yes | 46c | 102.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 55c | 101.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 50c | 99.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…8e43backed Yes | 42c | 95.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707d…7362backed Yes | 45c | 81.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…9ca2backed Yes | 46c | 80.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 63c | 76.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 54c | 75.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…8ddabacked No | 57c | 70.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked No | 59c | 65.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…adfabacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…8954backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…d3c9backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 57c | 63.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 43c | 61.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed No | 61c | 59.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…ed93backed Yes | 45c | 56.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 57c | 54.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed No | 55c | 54.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…2719backed No | 55c | 52.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 256 | 39.1%100 W · 156 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…7ef2backed Yes | 45c | 46.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed Yes | 54c | 46.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 47c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…ad22backed Yes | 44c | 40.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…74d2backed Yes | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 46c | 33.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 59.6%118 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…3d6fbacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…a9f4backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 28.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Yes | 45c | 27.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…313ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Yes | 45c | 26.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked Yes | 45c | 24.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Canada (-1.5)Canada won
- Spread: Canada (-2.5)Uzbekistan won
- Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5)Canada won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.