TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed L1ga Team45c20,188$9,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,050.5740051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed MOUZ55c18,400$10,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,133.956256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ44c15,122$6,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,674.591,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked L1ga Team51c12,400$6,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,117.5180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team40c8,254$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.271,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed L1ga Team43c7,342$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,150.0468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked L1ga Team43c7,171$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,108.5389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ57c6,958$3,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,962.261,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MOUZ55c6,847$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,746.6533041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked L1ga Team42c5,915$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.8289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MOUZ54c5,733$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0961,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed L1ga Team52c4,559$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.5538855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed MOUZ55c3,230$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.014450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked L1ga Team47c2,554$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.0596645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed L1ga Team42c2,493$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.8629143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ55c2,391$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.9495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team44c2,385$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.981,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ59c2,300$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35756852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed L1ga Team40c2,223$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.4477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team39c2,068$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.271,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed MOUZ51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked L1ga Team51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team43c1,912$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.6771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed MOUZ55c1,844$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.831540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ54c1,735$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4355251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed MOUZ52c1,700$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88461745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ44c1,629$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.732,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ61c1,617$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.1279959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked MOUZ64c1,553$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked MOUZ69c1,442$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ53c1,361$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.541,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ16c1,300$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ70c1,274$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.6177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed L1ga Team42c1,241$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.8144645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked L1ga Team29c1,237$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.2541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf919…3241backed L1ga Team45c1,223$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.861747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed L1ga Team47c1,199$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.5345046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed MOUZ25c1,169$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.716637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed MOUZ61c1,138$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed L1ga Team53c1,127$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.1724255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked MOUZ44c1,112$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed MOUZ48c1,111$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.287742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked L1ga Team48c1,048$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.6137945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ56c1,013$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.4999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed MOUZ40c1,007$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed L1ga Team44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed L1ga Team48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team38c999.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9956243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed L1ga Team44c980.62$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.5871342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed MOUZ53c943.53$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8520939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ43c862.88$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.072,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed MOUZ58c855.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked MOUZ59c845.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc91…299cbacked MOUZ56c804.2$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked MOUZ64c798.53$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.379650%48 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ39c797.16$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.6872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team50c797.01$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.011,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked MOUZ65c779.99$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.996873.5%50 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked L1ga Team50c728.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.4553139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc690…5231backed MOUZ61c713.74$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed MOUZ55c702.49$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2528549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed L1ga Team40c699.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7127737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf9…c7adbacked L1ga Team44c687.57$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked L1ga Team37c684.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.536851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed MOUZ27c598.11$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.952751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed L1ga Team38c584.27$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.771,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed L1ga Team50c577.43$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.039754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed L1ga Team37c542.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.8130534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MOUZ64c533.44$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked L1ga Team60c532.91$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.3585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed L1ga Team39c530.37$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.34757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d36…51debacked L1ga Team43c500$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2835330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked MOUZ58c499.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9970052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed L1ga Team40c491.19$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.189045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed L1ga Team40c489.4$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed MOUZ58c486.57$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.218050%40 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f4…fa45backed MOUZ47c477.57$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.652536%9 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked L1ga Team49c461.22$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2220452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed MOUZ37c450$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3243738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked MOUZ71c418.89$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.412540%10 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c5…da68backed L1ga Team39c403$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed MOUZ48c399.97$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked L1ga Team50c398.49$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7858746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed MOUZ67c390.97$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9524636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked MOUZ51c387$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.239948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed L1ga Team63c380.14$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3811353.1%60 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed MOUZ59c380$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.660251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ58c368.11$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4447548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked MOUZ51c360.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3236547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed L1ga Team42c355.42$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4286451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed L1ga Team55c353.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0216839.9%67 W · 101 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed L1ga Team54c347.23$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0620740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked L1ga Team36c343.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.783336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed L1ga Team61c343.03$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.786167.2%41 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked MOUZ62c320$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.441055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ56c303.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.241,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked MOUZ67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed L1ga Team43c292.19$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked L1ga Team48c290.86$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1879341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed MOUZ51c286.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9423736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.