MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21cf9493e47bd1f7dec870b6cb6a14acd67a58b718250eb6416804c4df12ab40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 2,428$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.86 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 1,437$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.92 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Atlanta Braves | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 441.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 432.26$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 411.15$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 339$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.74 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 272.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.65 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 218.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 98.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 95.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 81.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 66.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 46.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84be…d79dbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 24.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…766abacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 19.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.