MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76efc107e54ed71957db0a9ee499cc047e157bb1c5077a47d4c01eb606cf4ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 23,471$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 4,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 3,911$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 3,466$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.54 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 2,454$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 1,877$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.06 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 1,829$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,450$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.25 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 1,056$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…9453backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 1,001$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 909.75$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 812$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.92 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 762.95$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 751.72$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.24 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 675.39$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 460.53$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.03 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 346.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 342.38$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 314.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 314.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 284.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 264.17$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 257$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 214.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 213.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 171.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 167.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 132.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 106.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 73.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 66.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca96…06f6backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 62.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 50.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 42.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…1927backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 35.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…6b9cbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 18.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.