MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45dac9b99a9f870801d5b01222c11c823d8c7ca94abf044021fea81e6ff45a52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 53c | 2,883$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.79 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 45c | 2,245$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 1,437$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 78c | 1,060$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 592$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Over | 36c | 558.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 56c | 533.56$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.77 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 453.85$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 408.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 359.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 22c | 304.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 54c | 277.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 175$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 55c | 165$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 150.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 132.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…5276backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 79.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 74.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 37c | 63.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Under | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 42.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 55c | 37.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 56c | 35.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Over | 56c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Under | 45c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.