Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dabb2d5de1c9f2493fa6ec05dfddb18ccd2a17574292263044c95130a632cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 1,132$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.11 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 78c | 678.8$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 73c | 413.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 382.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 74c | 312.12$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 297.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 268.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 253.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 227.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 220$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 219.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 206.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 198.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 166.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 160.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 40c | 152.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 141.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 129.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 123.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 120.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 40c | 120.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 118.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 106.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 102.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 97.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 97.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 84.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 81.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 79c | 78.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 67.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 66c | 62.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 36c | 61.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 36c | 61.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 60.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 49.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…7eb9backed Yes | 24c | 46.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 46.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 28c | 45.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 42.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 40.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 40.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 31c | 36.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 35.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 72c | 34.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 34.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 34.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 33.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 35c | 28.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 26.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 22.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 66c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.