Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Everton?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221633a763d607ac24cb5d16fff0e4f8ccf5b44898c5ffa6414408593447646b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 24c | 4,388$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 41c | 2,464$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked No | 78c | 2,062$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 39c | 1,821$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.64 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 59c | 1,343$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.63 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 65c | 1,045$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.74 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 35c | 1,009$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.98 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 35c | 898.31$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 64c | 820$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 64c | 749.8$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 64c | 690.11$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.83 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 65c | 600$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 22c | 597.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 63c | 545.39$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…434cbacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +329.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 64c | 484.04$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 34c | 436.55$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 21c | 345$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.25 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 32c | 339.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 51c | 332.85$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 35c | 265$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 65c | 258.01$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 64c | 221.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 60c | 195.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Yes | 67c | 148.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 52c | 147.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…af72backed Yes | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 59c | 94.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yes | 59c | 85.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 59c | 84.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…2f89backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…2ea7backed No | 35c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…bd89backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…9c66backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 59c | 56.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…1f51backed Yes | 49c | 53.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 39c | 47.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b57…b2a4backed No | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed Yes | 48c | 45.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eef…198abacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…b3aabacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…97c2backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a7…3f0bbacked Yes | 66c | 45.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4d45backed Yes | 66c | 45.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…6ef1backed No | 33c | 44.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…209cbacked No | 33c | 44.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…3a78backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…bd4dbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…895fbacked No | 35c | 41.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…6af6backed Yes | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…5b5bbacked No | 33c | 40.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…9dcabacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed Yes | 63c | 39.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…086bbacked Yes | 68c | 38.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…3f43backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaa…c528backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…edf7backed Yes | 66c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…a200backed Yes | 64c | 32.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 31.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…7b4fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…e0e3backed Yes | 68c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…07c3backed Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…a877backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4360…add5backed Yes | 66c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Everton?this page
- Will Aston Villa vs. Everton end in a draw?No won
- Will Everton beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.