NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22eafe158fdd374ee38782b92aa1c574b0d633272e243992dda2062229fcf888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 59c | 4,767$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,712$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 71c | 1,404$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.74 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 44c | 1,193$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.96 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 39c | 911.28$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 47c | 814.15$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.15 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 79c | 629$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 64c | 488.55$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 416.72$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 29c | 277.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 277.07$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 32c | 274.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 256.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 245.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Over | 29c | 235$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Under | 70c | 197.6$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 24c | 186.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 35c | 166.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 144.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 71c | 141.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 68c | 132$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 64c | 106.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 46c | 90.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…a5bbbacked Under | 77c | 74.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 71c | 70.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 65.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 58.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 61c | 56.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Over | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 49.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 57c | 47.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed Over | 57c | 35.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…d21cbacked Under | 51c | 30.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Under | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe9…7c35backed Under | 51c | 19.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 69c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Ducks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.