NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d030beb64f0470a2921e0b8b466867c66f7e038e7879aaa2169ea0c502ddb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d93…2cf1backed Ducks | 59c | 6,367$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights | 36c | 4,448$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.76 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Golden Knights | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Golden Knights | 41c | 1,597$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.05 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Ducks | 69c | 1,125$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Golden Knights | 42c | 1,005$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.52 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Ducks | 52c | 962.08$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Ducks | 54c | 840$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Golden Knights | 38c | 792.38$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.27 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden Knights | 38c | 671.67$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.78 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 42c | 651.2$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.54 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Golden Knights | 46c | 600.98$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.92 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Golden Knights | 41c | 582$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.38 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308d…3519backed Ducks | 66c | 553.03$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ducks | 55c | 507.02$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.25 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks | 61c | 478.04$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ducks | 56c | 450$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.25 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Golden Knights | 39c | 435.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Ducks | 61c | 368.85$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Ducks | 56c | 355.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Ducks | 62c | 320.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden Knights | 46c | 302.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.05 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Ducks | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…9971backed Golden Knights | 39c | 285.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Ducks | 57c | 253.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…ad11backed Ducks | 57c | 253.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…4b3abacked Golden Knights | 39c | 253.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Ducks | 52c | 191.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Golden Knights | 46c | 191.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden Knights | 46c | 189.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Golden Knights | 41c | 171.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Ducks | 62c | 159.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ducks | 50c | 153.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Golden Knights | 39c | 149.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Ducks | 62c | 137.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ducks | 52c | 116.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Ducks | 52c | 114.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ducks | 61c | 108.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Ducks | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Golden Knights | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Ducks | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 59c | 89.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 51c | 88.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 80.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Golden Knights | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights | 48c | 74.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…0614backed Ducks | 55c | 66.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Ducks | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Golden Knights | 43c | 63.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Ducks | 54c | 62.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…790cbacked Ducks | 61c | 61.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Golden Knights | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ducks | 51c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Golden Knights | 43c | 59.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee8…07c4backed Golden Knights | 49c | 51.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ducks | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Ducks | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…221fbacked Ducks | 61c | 44.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…cd13backed Ducks | 61c | 39.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Ducks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Golden Knights | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1813backed Golden Knights | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Golden Knights | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…b8ecbacked Ducks | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…87d1backed Ducks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Ducks | 60c | 28.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Ducks | 51c | 24.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.