NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81df3b92423d6a8976631f541bfe28a08ccd57fdd7e19976ddfb7c597882a12c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3c9…4b9cbacked Over | 51c | 40,423$20,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,545.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 49c | 25,289$12,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900.36 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 10,935$5,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,656.15 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 61c | 6,172$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 52c | 5,820$3,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 3,893$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,989$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.67 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Over | 52c | 2,300$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,399$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.46 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Under | 49c | 1,041$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 52c | 1,000$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 36c | 765$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…198fbacked Under | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3f…f75dbacked Over | 9c | 445.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 36c | 382$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 360.88$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…b8ecbacked Under | 75c | 296.39$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 52c | 289.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 237.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…45aabacked Under | 61c | 214.92$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 30c | 206.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 52c | 187.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 110.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…97bebacked Under | 49c | 108.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 44c | 101.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 53c | 101.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…ad11backed Under | 47c | 100.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…359ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 78c | 98.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 98.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 31c | 91.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 31c | 74.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Under | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c451backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 59c | 41.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under | 46c | 41.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…885cbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 41c | 31.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 49c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 47c | 29.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…21babacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052f…5ef8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.