Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2307f667cdc9676e6fe39e3ef7f8ddf47011aa687370d936c53c8b384570a373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,566$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 2,816$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 8c | 950.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 579.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 465.05$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 32c | 425.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 11c | 417.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 382.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 16c | 375.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 372.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 316.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 282.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 268.07$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 243.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 12c | 217.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 216.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 208.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 7c | 205.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 187.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 77c | 181.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 71c | 177.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 176.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 169.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 155.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 119.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 118.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 19c | 113.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 21c | 112.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 108.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 103.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 94.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 33c | 92.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 71c | 90.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 21c | 90.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 76.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 24c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…7f01backed Yes | 16c | 64.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…aecabacked No | 79c | 64.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 21c | 60.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…cda5backed Yes | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 53.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 29c | 52.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 52.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 49.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 44.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 70c | 43.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 39.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 32c | 36.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 31.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 30.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 66c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.