Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae2e275987b23b5af12fe75b37acba3fb37823e3397f1718627ffb1c902e885
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 749.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 730.42$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 28c | 730.04$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.55 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 588.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 567.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 68c | 543.61$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.67 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 533.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 457.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 19c | 315.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 314.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 10c | 255.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 6c | 241.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 193.47$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 186.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 20c | 158.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 65c | 153.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 28c | 145.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 145.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 21c | 137.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 23c | 129.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 24c | 127.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 127$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 119.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 21c | 112.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 71c | 108.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 17c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 102.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 27c | 99.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 67c | 97.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 94.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 89.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 87.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 14c | 86.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 83.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 68c | 81.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 76.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 75.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 30c | 72.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 69c | 72.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 66.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 60.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 60.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 56.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 54.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 25c | 53.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 52.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 50.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 28c | 46.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 45.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 41.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 29c | 40.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 67c | 32.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 25.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 77c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…494cbacked No | 78c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 14.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.