Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3948c667d3ad9646304d8a743b2864c7e062ee61e146ff27a899b405cf1409bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 50c | 732.78$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 610.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 43c | 551.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 533.62$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.72 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 46c | 494.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.33 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 48c | 420.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 49c | 346.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 78c | 322.11$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 319.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 312.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 55c | 296.02$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 55c | 270.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 261.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 57c | 237.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 71c | 227.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed No | 50c | 224.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 207.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 63c | 200.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 198.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 193.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 52c | 187.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 180.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 66c | 177.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 171.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 48c | 164.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 142.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 139.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 49c | 138.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 132$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 128.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 128.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 123.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 61c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 41c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 109.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked No | 55c | 109.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 48c | 108.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 51c | 97.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 64c | 96.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 34c | 95.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 15c | 95.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 58c | 95.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 92.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 27c | 86.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 84.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 26c | 82.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked Yes | 55c | 80.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 71c | 79.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 77.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 44c | 75.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 69.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 67.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 63.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 55c | 55.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 53c | 54.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 52.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 34c | 47.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 47.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 46.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 45.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 38c | 44.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 42.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 41.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 41.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 40.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 39.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 37c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 37.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 37.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 44c | 36.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 75c | 33.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 32.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 32.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 29.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 27.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.