Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230a4730869d605a9c4f85d16ccf017fb4ba91fa760d497bdd576d95e386be81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c2…1c89backed Yes | 63c | 7,604$4,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 46c | 5,017$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.33 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 36c | 3,107$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.45 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 27c | 1,187$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 73c | 981.21$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Yes | 64c | 864.03$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 27c | 442.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.1 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 49c | 387.08$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 340.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 316.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.37 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 46c | 253.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 76c | 249.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.32 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 25c | 244.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 36c | 239.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 193.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.61 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 64c | 155.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 8c | 145.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 142$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 26c | 129.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 26c | 119.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 61c | 108.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 77c | 103.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 102.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 75c | 100.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 74c | 80.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 37c | 73.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 63c | 70.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 46c | 69.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 63.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 30c | 61.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 27c | 60.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 61c | 51.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 44.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 37c | 44.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…a155backed Yes | 24c | 41.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 38.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 35c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 30.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…67b9backed No | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 70c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.