Tennis · resolved market
Canadian Open, Qualification: Michael Zheng vs Kei Nishikori
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234a121ac48ecf87418e762961b8b7b4f10693919968929d5b80129d2e758eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michael Zhengof Michael Zheng, Kei Nishikori
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f65…2036backed Michael Zheng | 76c | 51,796$39,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,177.17 | 744 | 39.8%296 W · 448 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kei Nishikori | 23c | 23,528$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.47 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kei Nishikori | 25c | 2,829$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Michael Zheng | 66c | 2,280$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.13 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Kei Nishikori | 31c | 2,103$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.06 | 317 | 36.9%117 W · 200 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 1,884$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.06 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Michael Zheng | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Michael Zheng | 58c | 1,312$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.89 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kei Nishikori | 29c | 1,106$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Kei Nishikori | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kei Nishikori | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Kei Nishikori | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Kei Nishikori | 35c | 998.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 385 | 50.4%194 W · 191 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…8172backed Kei Nishikori | 9c | 950$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Michael Zheng | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 721.16$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.56 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Michael Zheng | 68c | 688.66$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.37 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Kei Nishikori | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 359 | 38.2%137 W · 222 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Kei Nishikori | 36c | 491.27$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 395$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Kei Nishikori | 34c | 353.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Kei Nishikori | 23c | 342.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…b7e4backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 299 | 48.5%145 W · 154 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Kei Nishikori | 32c | 299.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Kei Nishikori | 24c | 284.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 261.19$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Michael Zheng | 64c | 232.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Kei Nishikori | 24c | 227.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Kei Nishikori | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 40.2%98 W · 146 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Kei Nishikori | 25c | 195.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Michael Zheng | 64c | 159.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…d87cbacked Michael Zheng | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…b139backed Michael Zheng | 66c | 127.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Kei Nishikori | 28c | 112.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Michael Zheng | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 435 | 53.1%231 W · 204 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Kei Nishikori | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Michael Zheng | 64c | 99.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Kei Nishikori | 25c | 97.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kei Nishikori | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Kei Nishikori | 38c | 83.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…9addbacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 386 | 64%247 W · 139 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…d4c0backed Michael Zheng | 68c | 73.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 148 | 70.3%104 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Kei Nishikori | 23c | 70.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Kei Nishikori | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 59.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Michael Zheng | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…32a7backed Michael Zheng | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 163 | 72.4%118 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 40.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Kei Nishikori | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 40.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Kei Nishikori | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 343 | 59.5%204 W · 139 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Michael Zheng | 65c | 35.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Kei Nishikori | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 32.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…ebdcbacked Kei Nishikori | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Kei Nishikori | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Michael Zheng | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Michael Zheng | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Michael Zheng | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b6…9b2cbacked Michael Zheng | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Michael Zheng | 67c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…9c52backed Michael Zheng | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Michael Zheng | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Michael Zheng | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadian Open, Qualification: Michael Zheng vs Kei Nishikorithis page
- Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)Zheng won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.