TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Aresof G2 Ares, HyperSpirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b97…8d30backed HyperSpirit51c7,500$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.9866851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares49c4,508$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.975,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked G2 Ares54c3,500$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61043951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked HyperSpirit46c3,202$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.777,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed HyperSpirit50c2,188$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.511,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x806a…b7dabacked G2 Ares49c1,583$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.332161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed HyperSpirit62c918.93$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.7417759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed G2 Ares66c799.98$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.992,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares49c696.99$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.462,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed HyperSpirit29c650$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed G2 Ares49c540$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.812334.1%42 W · 81 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed G2 Ares51c520$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.85,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed G2 Ares43c508.07$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1869445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked G2 Ares51c477.19$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.8217448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed G2 Ares49c421$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6646555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed HyperSpirit50c364$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8337057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked G2 Ares61c358.02$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.92,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed HyperSpirit27c316$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0810129.7%30 W · 71 L-10.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed G2 Ares49c307.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7955039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed HyperSpirit52c288.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504740.4%19 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed HyperSpirit52c266.92$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked G2 Ares50c246$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked G2 Ares47c217.36$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2167…fa33backed HyperSpirit52c210.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109047.8%43 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x292a…d1acbacked HyperSpirit50c198.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed G2 Ares34c197.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6610036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed HyperSpirit51c197.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked G2 Ares51c180$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.072,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed HyperSpirit48c179.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.674,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed G2 Ares58c177.83$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3440264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed G2 Ares49c158.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.047027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked HyperSpirit45c151.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6871951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f2…d56fbacked HyperSpirit49c150$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8213…711cbacked HyperSpirit58c149.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.55764.9%37 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked G2 Ares48c143.66$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.793,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed G2 Ares50c138.48$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2414344.1%63 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…acabbacked G2 Ares51c138$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.622962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HyperSpirit21c133$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.415,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked G2 Ares49c130$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3949536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1431…94d0backed HyperSpirit58c129.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.996651.5%34 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked HyperSpirit50c119.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked HyperSpirit51c116.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010444.2%46 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed HyperSpirit50c108.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4120745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked G2 Ares50c108.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4133340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed HyperSpirit60c100.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015347.1%72 W · 81 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed HyperSpirit49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked HyperSpirit50c98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4935847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed G2 Ares41c96.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.516756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f38…13c8backed G2 Ares49c95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.558655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked HyperSpirit52c93.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.987967.1%53 W · 26 L+10.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed G2 Ares54c92.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.647243.1%31 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked G2 Ares53c90.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.82,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked G2 Ares49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.991945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed G2 Ares50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455450%27 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed HyperSpirit50c86.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1816847.6%80 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5edf…7139backed HyperSpirit71c84.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed G2 Ares47c84.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2312754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked G2 Ares49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.633756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0190…279fbacked G2 Ares51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.26045%27 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ee…1f82backed HyperSpirit51c78.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407938%30 W · 49 L-10.5wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x97f1…33c4backed HyperSpirit52c77.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed HyperSpirit39c73.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8415846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed HyperSpirit36c67.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4479951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked G2 Ares62c66.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.881,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked HyperSpirit31c56.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.375245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x280d…2dc2backed G2 Ares48c52.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.18560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked G2 Ares42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2925551.8%132 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked G2 Ares57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.291,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.332,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Ares57c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed G2 Ares46c44.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.159548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb445…e4a3backed HyperSpirit67c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked HyperSpirit42c44.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed HyperSpirit51c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed G2 Ares49c40.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8183856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaedb…91fdbacked G2 Ares60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162564%16 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares63c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.684,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked G2 Ares43c36.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.672,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c8f…e478backed G2 Ares55c36.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86f8…2ed6backed G2 Ares55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f1…f02dbacked HyperSpirit51c35.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332630.8%8 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked HyperSpirit45c33.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.933751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed HyperSpirit68c33.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5952369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed G2 Ares38c32.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3218951.3%97 W · 92 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed HyperSpirit48c31.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.051,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed HyperSpirit38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4321650.5%109 W · 107 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ee…a02dbacked HyperSpirit50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed G2 Ares50c29.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7559755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked HyperSpirit55c29.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0216963.3%107 W · 62 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x484b…59f4backed G2 Ares51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed G2 Ares50c28.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.091,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b53…e3fdbacked HyperSpirit52c27.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9266…a9d3backed G2 Ares53c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.167657.9%44 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed G2 Ares51c25.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6599148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked G2 Ares49c25.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0411761.5%72 W · 45 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d68…580abacked HyperSpirit47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked G2 Ares50c24.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.272035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf11a…1002backed HyperSpirit51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2427848.6%135 W · 143 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed7…2146backed G2 Ares51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.764100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed HyperSpirit50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.