TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof MOUZ, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Nigma Galaxy47c42,044$19,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,193.2154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed MOUZ53c30,261$16,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,165.2114840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Nigma Galaxy44c5,210$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,917.8728748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed MOUZ52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9829143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed MOUZ52c4,749$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.246746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef18…ea40backed MOUZ8c4,656$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.633925.6%10 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed MOUZ56c4,343$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.215761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nigma Galaxy45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2009839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ21c3,943$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.3862650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed MOUZ54c3,912$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.986647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Nigma Galaxy76c3,855$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.8413068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Nigma Galaxy75c3,778$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.06875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+87.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Nigma Galaxy46c3,337$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.7864744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d6a…1c08backed Nigma Galaxy54c3,067$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.343450%17 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ32c2,826$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Nigma Galaxy63c1,859$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy47c1,650$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed MOUZ52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8322352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ53c1,410$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.3640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ54c1,320$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.3785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Nigma Galaxy72c1,096$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50dc…b61abacked Nigma Galaxy73c1,071$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.141926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ51c1,063$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.7868649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d04…022bbacked MOUZ28c1,049$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed MOUZ2c1,046$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4737832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Nigma Galaxy53c1,025$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.7288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy80c1,001$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1c…4dafbacked Nigma Galaxy47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ54c998.19$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.021,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c2…12e7backed Nigma Galaxy44c971.9$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy47c934.42$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.242,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy69c821.55$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.982,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed MOUZ4c797.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3817330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Nigma Galaxy44c780$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.952334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ29c756.18$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.221,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked MOUZ54c754.16$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2523653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nigma Galaxy43c699.96$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.9855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Nigma Galaxy57c688.29$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Nigma Galaxy46c631.45$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.1816641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed MOUZ56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed MOUZ52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31217146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed MOUZ37c598.9$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.77429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cd2…2f38backed MOUZ28c533.45$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Nigma Galaxy56c501.76$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb57…32dcbacked Nigma Galaxy47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2652544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed MOUZ56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28034860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…67a6backed MOUZ54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Nigma Galaxy47c499.97$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9923347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MOUZ57c486.84$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy44c483.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.5929240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed MOUZ49c463.86$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.249140.7%37 W · 54 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked MOUZ57c437.4$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3220738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Nigma Galaxy43c403.79$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.161369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Nigma Galaxy47c397.11$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7a…f429backed Nigma Galaxy46c349.91$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad1…7653backed Nigma Galaxy44c321.41$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Nigma Galaxy48c311.3$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1751550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Nigma Galaxy45c302.08$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Nigma Galaxy62c272.83$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3436138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabc7…a5dfbacked MOUZ57c272.78$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Nigma Galaxy50c272.3$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5117443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40c2…ceb5backed Nigma Galaxy44c270.59$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4222…c5eebacked Nigma Galaxy46c268.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac1…6b8dbacked MOUZ55c267.58$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…9c40backed MOUZ54c258.84$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed MOUZ54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aba…9be5backed Nigma Galaxy71c245.65$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.243551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Nigma Galaxy67c245.05$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8715064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Nigma Galaxy69c235.68$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2113647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy64c234$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.491,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed MOUZ30c207.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2471342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed MOUZ56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Nigma Galaxy47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10673743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f8…8c55backed MOUZ52c192.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.354850%24 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked MOUZ34c185.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.318649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked MOUZ7c173.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6622543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Nigma Galaxy45c173.32$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9741248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3829…89a9backed MOUZ28c170.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed MOUZ54c169.11$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.324245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ49c164.83$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7756243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ45c164.19$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nigma Galaxy70c156.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5277256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed MOUZ30c151.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4623342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Nigma Galaxy69c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0946451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Nigma Galaxy73c134.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3928062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked MOUZ55c133.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3312642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8b06backed MOUZ53c126.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.051560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked MOUZ28c124.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8317954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbda…8bd5backed MOUZ52c118.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.813259.8%79 W · 53 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked MOUZ53c117.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8114762.6%92 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Nigma Galaxy47c116.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed MOUZ52c111.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.077429.7%22 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2bd0…ff51backed MOUZ57c107.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.021250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Nigma Galaxy43c106.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.797646.1%35 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…34d0backed Nigma Galaxy46c104.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.22343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed MOUZ56c104.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4113152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed MOUZ49c100.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4426050.4%131 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed MOUZ49c100.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4425349.4%125 W · 128 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed MOUZ49c100.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.