MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c0108f927e476404d3e2d188592ed972272b4efe6ff8eda1add586c53dcea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 31c | 4,354$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 2,934$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.59 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 1,770$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.24 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 1,511$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 1,443$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 76c | 1,366$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.97 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 1,096$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.43 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 918$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.66 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 64c | 784.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 58c | 766.93$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.82 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 629.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 498.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 407.38$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 365$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 32c | 274.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 237.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 211.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 137.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Under | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 72c | 111.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 141 | 64.5%91 W · 50 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 58c | 109.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 30c | 105.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 70c | 105.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0e…0d1dbacked Under | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 31c | 87.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 23c | 68.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 58c | 54.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 29c | 53.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 29c | 49.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 29c | 46.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…87bcbacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 68c | 31.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 22.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 22.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 68c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.