MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604b5b487993e0225eabf11253daad6c76e9b772f8676d7cf2ab95d538defe4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 76c | 27,745$20,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,747.21 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 24c | 20,833$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 10,307$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 5,098$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Under | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 3,902$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 54c | 1,714$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.52 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,249$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,110$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.45 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 779.31$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 734$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 67c | 609.64$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 51c | 394$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 58c | 392.31$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 390$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 57c | 351.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 47c | 342.13$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 335.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 15c | 311.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 243.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 44c | 232.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 232.58$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 44c | 218.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Under | 53c | 212$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 200.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 40c | 199.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 188.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 156.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 137.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 44c | 132.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 31c | 119.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 58c | 113.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 55c | 100.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Over | 16c | 93.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 32c | 61.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 44c | 55.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 44c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 43.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 45c | 38.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 33.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 44c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 61c | 17.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 61c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.