MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f5a49f8711b3591e539f6a721e4e5ce3bb857c88ff018b47aa3f2ab8f92732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 47c | 5,549$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.95 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 66c | 1,949$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.61 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 1,864$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 1,025$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Under | 55c | 1,002$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.76 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 932.79$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 45c | 777$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 275.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 267.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 250.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 45c | 233.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 26c | 202.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 187.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 54c | 181.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 175.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 46c | 163.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 25c | 152.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 38c | 91.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 73c | 90.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 40c | 86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 73.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 31c | 64.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 54.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 50.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…c1e4backed Under | 56c | 43.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 79c | 37.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 36c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 78c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Under | 56c | 18.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.