Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240a6904262dee817a61cc60146acacdb7fdbd203e16d56c02b716a9f35e403d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 6,060$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 18c | 1,138$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.52 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 80c | 967.07$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 813.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 36c | 794.13$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 750.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 12c | 620.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…377fbacked Yes | 22c | 587.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 11c | 559.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 32c | 480.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 427.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 384.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 25c | 330.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 14c | 323.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 300.55$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 72c | 257.12$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 12c | 238.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 199.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 74c | 197.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 165.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 14c | 159.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 74c | 150.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 136.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed Yes | 39c | 128.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 119.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…f05fbacked Yes | 9c | 116.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 30c | 112.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…d087backed Yes | 14c | 106.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 25c | 91.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 26c | 86.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 26c | 85.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…fc3cbacked Yes | 29c | 85.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked Yes | 17c | 82.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 80.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…7f14backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…86d6backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 38c | 58.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…62ddbacked No | 78c | 50.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…d1abbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 66c | 48.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…8454backed Yes | 26c | 45.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4313…d34ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…050abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…0e42backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…48e3backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.