Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a832de727664bbae3a2b071a9bd4c39f3a6c7d7580218dcf43ebda0ab7c577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 4,008$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 13c | 793.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 11c | 772.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 13c | 744.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 14c | 709$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 12c | 634.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 6c | 631.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 8c | 586.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 11c | 530.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 12c | 372.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 326.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…81e7backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 15c | 253.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 214.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 13c | 213.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…377fbacked Yes | 19c | 197.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked Yes | 16c | 171.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 166.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 17c | 157.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…c85abacked Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 27c | 132.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 15c | 131.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…f05fbacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 115.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…86d6backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…1436backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 98.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80c8…35ebbacked Yes | 16c | 92.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…4f06backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 18c | 84.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 13c | 84.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…b0cfbacked Yes | 19c | 80.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…050abacked Yes | 22c | 73.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…a997backed Yes | 16c | 70.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905b…c9d1backed Yes | 18c | 66.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…8454backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed No | 80c | 30.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.