Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59b419b91abaf20f21e4a2ead4ead9c47e1b240e82556362471acab0aba1ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 6c | 1,249$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 30c | 1,119$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 61c | 1,032$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 39c | 723.31$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.88 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 699.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 55c | 685.92$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 11c | 654.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 55c | 626.58$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.43 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 544.86$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…1817backed Yes | 70c | 501.44$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 500.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…377fbacked Yes | 42c | 491.59$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…18edbacked Yes | 50c | 467.65$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 28c | 438.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 16c | 319.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked Yes | 78c | 294.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 258.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 223.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 36c | 212.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 47c | 210.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…1002backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…79babacked No | 63c | 193$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 80c | 180.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 56c | 177.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…88e6backed Yes | 78c | 119.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 47c | 118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 38c | 100.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed Yes | 66c | 86.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed No | 55c | 85.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 55c | 72.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 60c | 61.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 66c | 60.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 59.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 51c | 59.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Yes | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…050abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 48c | 48.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 47.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed No | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 51c | 39.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Yes | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 36.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…b3c8backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 69c | 34.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 48c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…fbb5backed No | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…497cbacked Yes | 53c | 29.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 52c | 28.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 58c | 27.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc0…ba48backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 58c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 73c | 22.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.