MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240f78a7840c76cd47e827dff5477505cb4263df680133f8e79d998b3f763f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8377…4198backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 20,399$9,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,114.3 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 20,300$11,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,571 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,400 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 17,932$5,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,545.01 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 17,862$12,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,400 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,900 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 9,152$6,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,480.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 8,780$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,180.2 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 3,082$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.92 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 2,388$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.89 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 1,738$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.8 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.48 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked Chicago Cubs | 76c | 1,000$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 930.73$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 922.28$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.48 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 900$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 782$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 533.73$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.9 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 409.54$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 286.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 259.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 225.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 172.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 114.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 56.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.