NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x242915fa0baf5d9dcdd640bc83fcfed1575630c4e50c31bc4dd29e3107ba4764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Over | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,960$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 1,528$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 50c | 1,394$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,366$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 919.86$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.93 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 347$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 276.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…0fb5backed Under | 50c | 276.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…a1e5backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 50c | 151.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Under | 50c | 89.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a0efbacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…fa7bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WizardsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.