TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Over51c4,128$2,117 inWon+$2,010.732,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under46c3,038$1,397 inLost-$1,397.441,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c2,705$1,384 inWon+$1,320.911,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c1,737$850 inLost-$850.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over50c1,512$756 inWon+$7562,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32df…9626backed Over55c1,200$660 inWon+$539.991580%12 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+82%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfa85…8542backed Under46c1,200$546 inLost-$546.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c693$328 inLost-$327.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under48c200$96 inLost-$961,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Over55c109.09$60 inWon+$49.0913957.6%80 W · 59 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under47c100$47 inLost-$473,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under47c100$47 inLost-$472,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under46c81.63$38 inLost-$37.5576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under47c81.63$38 inLost-$38.3712648.4%61 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8396…0de1backed Under48c71$34 inLost-$34.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Under47c59.57$28 inLost-$286445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under45c50.4$23 inLost-$22.6839756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe09e…5047backed Under45c48.44$22 inLost-$21.88243.9%36 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12f7…0899backed Over54c46.3$25 inWon+$21.32751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under47c45$21 inLost-$21.151,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under45c33.33$15 inLost-$1593849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Over52c33$17 inWon+$15.8413652.2%71 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Under45c24.22$11 inLost-$10.97851.3%40 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.