NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc386ad5b37fd47ad36825349dc9d08fe16479d041e0d875473bbd341c01fa14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Timberwolves | 51c | 19,000$9,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,310 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Wizards | 49c | 19,000$9,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,310 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards | 48c | 15,212$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.85 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Timberwolves | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 52c | 9,231$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,431 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 5,326$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Wizards | 49c | 5,072$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 4,123$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 51c | 2,752$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.6 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 2,584$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 2,498$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.08 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 55c | 2,061$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Wizards | 48c | 1,661$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.28 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Wizards | 48c | 1,243$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.8 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Wizards | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Timberwolves | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 45c | 519.89$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 239.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves | 55c | 204$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…eca5backed Wizards | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Timberwolves | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Wizards | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Timberwolves | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Timberwolves | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Timberwolves | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…3b75backed Timberwolves | 57c | 100.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Timberwolves | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Wizards | 45c | 94.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Timberwolves | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 63.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 46c | 57.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 57.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Wizards | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Timberwolves | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…1c3dbacked Wizards | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…0951backed Timberwolves | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 50c | 30.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Wizards | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Wizards | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…196ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Timberwolves | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WizardsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.