NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972142bf5cc18ceb79fd0e8996c39d285779a4be93abd103ad7863c99ef89837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,787$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 2,482$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 60c | 2,379$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.14 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 2,249$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,243$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.27 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 1,664$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.36 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 41c | 949$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.09 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 940$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.6 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 689.1$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 26c | 382.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 38c | 200.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…f54fbacked Over | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…ed99backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 49c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WizardsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.