NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9393a0f3bd2331436a95dd281a07659d788eb93ff0fba483689ec06369993ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1748…a816backed Timberwolves | 48c | 11,926$5,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,157.37 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Wizards | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 52c | 3,901$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Wizards | 52c | 3,001$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.52 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,854$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.62 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 265 | 46%122 W · 143 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,758$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.36 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Wizards | 52c | 1,683$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.16 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…b639backed Wizards | 50c | 1,011$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.76 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 55c | 869.63$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Wizards | 54c | 830.61$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Wizards | 53c | 830.19$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 777$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Wizards | 51c | 652.76$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.91 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Wizards | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Wizards | 54c | 462$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.95 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Wizards | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 371.43$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.43 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 363.58$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.49 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 44c | 229$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 54c | 222.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wizards | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Wizards | 43c | 171$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Wizards | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Wizards | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves | 48c | 88.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Wizards | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Wizards | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Wizards | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Wizards | 33c | 45.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Wizards | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 52c | 25.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Wizards | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WizardsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.