TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$337,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No49c24,336$11,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,951.873,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b46…8438backed Yes48c22,732$10,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,910.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes52c13,500$7,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4803855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes52c10,151$5,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.971,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes46c7,855$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,272.5722669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No47c7,449$3,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,516.429831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No48c5,976$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.5610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes73c5,956$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.212,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked No42c5,800$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4461546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No42c5,791$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.022759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2a…8bd8backed Yes52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes23c5,604$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,315.3455058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No47c5,346$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes58c5,194$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.747757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50015064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes52c4,988$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.1516652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked No50c4,960$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4801464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes52c4,822$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.0414756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes53c4,604$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.872065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No48c4,592$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2044658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Yes53c4,149$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.062867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No47c4,063$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.966126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes52c3,811$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.022842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes53c3,782$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.0169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes52c3,773$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Yes52c3,747$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.762373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes20c3,716$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.5410463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Yes50c3,291$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No39c3,217$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.3623745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes52c3,201$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.9914157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No49c3,023$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.123046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4404252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4709549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.995923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked No48c2,895$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.61729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes57c2,770$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.4616045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No47c2,680$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.3534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed No48c2,521$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2102638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No48c2,500$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.6856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked No51c2,353$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1953961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked No48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed No48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No48c2,037$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.765440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.986053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde6c…c5d8backed No48c1,981$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.192250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked No35c1,682$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.71656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No37c1,666$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No35c1,571$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.0451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No43c1,525$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.2428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bcc…0c4bbacked No47c1,467$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Yes54c1,399$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Yes51c1,350$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.55100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes52c1,338$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.0415829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes52c1,305$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.351764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Yes51c1,116$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.892240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes52c1,115$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.381450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Yes76c1,062$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No49c1,018$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4994264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.996256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes52c999.55$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.7822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f23…babebacked Yes53c957$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e89…e67abacked No47c956$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…3b2fbacked No47c944$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1362…89e4backed Yes53c943$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21a…88edbacked Yes76c912.33$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes75c892.87$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Yes52c776.12$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No29c767.26$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2711644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Yes53c750$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No48c714$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed No48c703.5$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No16c660$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8349143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed No48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No47c600.01$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.013548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No48c600$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2855554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Yes52c586.76$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.644975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes52c585.57$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.6334342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Yes53c567.92$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.923369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No50c541$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes57c522.4$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1810641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Yes54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x877f…7acbbacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No48c499.99$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.335457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No29c486.48$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8612832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No48c457.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.523132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed No48c441.56$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.045137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes52c433.1$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.895552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked Yes54c428.97$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.135246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked No48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Yes53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed No21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.22250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.624254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Yes52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.363259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.