TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,046 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes26c7,302$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.3115134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes27c5,560$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes45c3,489$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.093,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8104835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No74c2,826$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.21,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No72c2,074$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.721,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Yes28c2,054$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-44.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes26c1,888$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4913834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No42c1,836$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.8353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked No74c1,610$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.062138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4055457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No73c1,300$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes41c1,262$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed Yes65c1,072$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da0…2f48backed No47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.833250%16 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes26c896.15$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2334240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0146…5ddebacked Yes26c799.72$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.91546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No66c656.12$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes26c631$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No74c599.99$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1569746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No73c599.97$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.995554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Yes45c575.56$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3344…9175backed Yes38c528.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes26c421.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes17c416.01$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed Yes26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Yes65c400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1d…820cbacked Yes75c397.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes26c376.92$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes26c369.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No74c366.22$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.224658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No73c323.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4622669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No74c299.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b97…3f54backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes20c260.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked No55c230.83$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.32035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes21c201.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1811644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed No53c197.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.214537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes34c192.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.132,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes57c186.95$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.562920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes26c151$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.54440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No59c135.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.898946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No74c135.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.134938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No61c131.58$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3439558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes61c128.05$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.159856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes28c117.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53b1…5de8backed Yes75c105.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4413555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf67…fc18backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No67c97.8$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9116542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc48…2427backed Yes26c94.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes26c83.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6f…c966backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce11…4a49backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes26c69.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes26c69.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes22c68.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2611045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes26c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1215160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Yes26c57.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.953046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No73c54.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.846144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes26c51.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes25c50.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6223745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe0…e3e0backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Yes78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb311…2b64backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d5…37e6backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x548c…763bbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9014…b6abbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8725855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed No45c44.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.926056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Yes27c44.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Yes27c42.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.493141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed No74c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.661540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fa…ebf3backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No74c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.413852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No73c37.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1014756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No73c34.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2411281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked No75c32.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.252871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Yes32c31.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.