MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2445d334fbfad7445e2e0898aac3292333dfe955cab928632b73ca854af1aea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 71c | 2,062$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 1,561$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Over | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9c…91e9backed Over | 36c | 705$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 395.07$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 37c | 387.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 368.47$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 31c | 289.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 32c | 246.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 228$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 64c | 195.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 63c | 194.03$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 29c | 168.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 161.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 132$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 64c | 119$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Under | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 82.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 31c | 78.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 29c | 74.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 63c | 61.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 32c | 61.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 31c | 53.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 70c | 48.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 36c | 37.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 65c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 66c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.