MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x861d152b3783018e17f2ed0ccd35ef7f7545ae83a1e539392c752eaac51a6428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 4,297$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 3,957$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 1,442$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.58 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,206$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.41 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 1,202$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 938$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 900.23$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 852.5$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 632$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b31…3e10backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 372$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 9c | 303$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 294.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 288.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 241.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 13c | 221$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 203.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 133.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 121.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…69ddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 94.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 81.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 64.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 61.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 57.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 52.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 30.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…4df7backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.