MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa91e2bb480ab1f91db7a7294014b71f0d7c74aef75305ed97f6f1813dda94f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 11,346$6,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.16 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 9,418$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 7,495$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,147.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 7,000$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 3,570$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.8 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 2,595$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.8 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 2,111$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,812$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 1,201$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.31 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 1,099$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.89 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 1,018$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.71 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 743.62$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.09 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 11c | 686$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 681.71$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 602$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 586.7$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…bb4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 498.41$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 481.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 432.75$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 412.8$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 355.19$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 332$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 12c | 244.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 213.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 13c | 182.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Washington Nationals | 9c | 167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 154$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 136.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 133.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 111.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 108.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 103.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Washington Nationals | 14c | 97.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 97.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 71.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 52.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.