TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Invictus Gamingof Team WE, Invictus Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$417,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$525,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32cc…68b3backed Invictus Gaming66c48,912$32,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,807.5218447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafe8…5f44backed Team WE0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120535.7%3 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team WE37c26,288$9,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,675.7890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team WE16c16,024$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.7282352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team WE34c14,970$5,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,161.6857246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team WE35c14,690$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,141.641,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Invictus Gaming69c10,631$7,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250.7890537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Invictus Gaming63c8,865$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.0589347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team WE31c8,199$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.641,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Team WE31c7,378$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.3359450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Invictus Gaming65c7,200$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52015153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE33c6,778$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.3685836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0b…6583backed Invictus Gaming78c5,202$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.6812142.1%51 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team WE21c5,170$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.7281143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Invictus Gaming67c4,626$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.481,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Team WE6c4,559$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1644120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team WE38c4,517$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.9770456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ad…43a4backed Team WE25c4,004$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Invictus Gaming61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.9830845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Team WE33c3,700$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2218746%40 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6dd…edafbacked Invictus Gaming70c3,690$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.3213165.6%86 W · 45 L+16.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team WE34c3,416$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.4475942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team WE34c3,416$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.4446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Invictus Gaming61c3,333$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.8625143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Invictus Gaming72c3,211$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.6667276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Invictus Gaming75c3,200$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Team WE34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team WE34c2,844$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96796057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Invictus Gaming69c2,686$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.2251146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Invictus Gaming68c2,682$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.0797427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Invictus Gaming62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team WE30c2,500$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.871,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Invictus Gaming69c2,478$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.2625447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team WE16c2,414$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.271,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Team WE36c2,172$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.9167250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team WE26c2,130$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.621,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Invictus Gaming69c2,061$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.332,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Team WE33c2,019$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.3932351.4%166 W · 157 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Invictus Gaming80c2,012$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.4167760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Invictus Gaming73c1,984$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.611,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Invictus Gaming69c1,941$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.159244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Invictus Gaming77c1,800$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4142,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb069…b4eabacked Team WE17c1,795$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.464761.7%29 W · 18 L+6.8wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Team WE40c1,703$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.9121948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Team WE32c1,657$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.9232939.8%131 W · 198 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Invictus Gaming62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.917749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba90…b283backed Team WE9c1,600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14416925.4%43 W · 126 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Invictus Gaming68c1,587$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.7660855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team WE39c1,545$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.551,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f0…3805backed Invictus Gaming73c1,532$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.373974.4%29 W · 10 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Team WE24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team WE4c1,500$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.21,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…42b1backed Invictus Gaming74c1,457$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.95942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team WE11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043642.4%185 W · 251 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Invictus Gaming74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3519053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team WE34c1,333$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.0766843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Invictus Gaming72c1,302$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.6533143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Invictus Gaming62c1,290$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3243539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Team WE39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Invictus Gaming61c1,206$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.289943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4033…48c5backed Team WE3c1,191$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b7…5d2cbacked Team WE36c1,119$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007973.4%58 W · 21 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team WE32c1,088$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.11,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Invictus Gaming68c1,058$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.5632954.4%179 W · 150 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team WE2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team WE37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37071249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…bb92backed Team WE27c999.93$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9811439.5%45 W · 69 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Invictus Gaming75c954.38$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.972,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8896…7c53backed Invictus Gaming76c951.5$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9418561.1%113 W · 72 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team WE29c932.62$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.5122336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team WE10c927.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.842,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5263…3e5dbacked Team WE22c878.67$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.148964%57 W · 32 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3e1…5683backed Invictus Gaming73c863.01$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.0111160.4%67 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team WE39c855.19$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.251,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Team WE39c852$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2833153.2%176 W · 155 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e58…8e90backed Invictus Gaming68c799.99$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf09…b8c5backed Team WE39c789.77$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team WE11c789.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8253139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Team WE39c786.39$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6916346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Invictus Gaming69c778.26$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2626042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Team WE39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed Invictus Gaming78c729.82$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0212970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Team WE28c724.98$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4815632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team WE35c722$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.760347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef2…98e0backed Invictus Gaming72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4411265.2%73 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Invictus Gaming74c677.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8352065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x109b…935fbacked Invictus Gaming75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6728261%172 W · 110 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Team WE33c660.32$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9145366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Invictus Gaming74c655.16$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.341,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Team WE33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25154.1%677 W · 574 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bfd…5984backed Team WE10c600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574055%22 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00cb…3992backed Invictus Gaming68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Invictus Gaming72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Team WE38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22864553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d1…ae10backed Team WE6c599.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383941%16 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Team WE3c566.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team WE32c509.99$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.22,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Team WE39c501.77$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6976955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team WE30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked Invictus Gaming64c500$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17917644.3%78 W · 98 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.