Music · resolved market
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2469cb4cfaec7b23d5d14c28e42ae56c4d7c099f79593b72acc93e68bf40f924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,329$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,308$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 1,298$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 885.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 9c | 838.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 8c | 759.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes | 7c | 724.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x345f…24a6backed Yes | 4c | 627.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 622.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 554.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…d611backed Yes | 3c | 510.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…7c00backed Yes | 3c | 466.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 4c | 429.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…2b98backed Yes | 4c | 366.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…73a2backed Yes | 4c | 362.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…3182backed Yes | 3c | 362.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 313.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…ec3cbacked Yes | 4c | 275.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…8a65backed Yes | 4c | 250.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed Yes | 4c | 249.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…d345backed Yes | 4c | 248$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 223$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 9c | 195.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 14c | 119.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…dd40backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…3d2fbacked Yes | 16c | 96.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?this page
- Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?Yes won
- Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Switzerland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
- Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.