Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25022c6e41bda8a0554553c657a26971168ffb49da6a6fa926a6377aa237334b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Most Wanted, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 2,898$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.06 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Most Wanted | 76c | 2,562$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.73 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 2,308$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.78 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 21c | 1,973$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.41 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Most Wanted | 34c | 1,774$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.79 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Most Wanted | 80c | 1,439$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.5 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Most Wanted | 1c | 1,315$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…d0a3backed Most Wanted | 3c | 1,021$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 1,015$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.98 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 1,000$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…b365backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 980$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 831.94$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed Most Wanted | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Most Wanted | 73c | 779.88$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.9 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 563.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.43 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 443.21$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…1d29backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 385.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Most Wanted | 37c | 363.34$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 304.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.01 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked VP.Prodigy | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Most Wanted | 40c | 300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Most Wanted | 74c | 270.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Most Wanted | 69c | 255$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 228.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.86 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Most Wanted | 48c | 224.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Most Wanted | 69c | 219.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 210$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 209.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Most Wanted | 69c | 205.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Most Wanted | 21c | 199.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 197.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed VP.Prodigy | 18c | 189.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Most Wanted | 50c | 187.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 185.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed VP.Prodigy | 15c | 168.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 167.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 152.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed VP.Prodigy | 12c | 151.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed VP.Prodigy | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 133.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Most Wanted | 77c | 129.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Most Wanted | 79c | 125.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Most Wanted | 80c | 125.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e8…b8f7backed Most Wanted | 80c | 125.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked VP.Prodigy | 13c | 123.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Most Wanted | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 100.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Most Wanted | 61c | 100.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed VP.Prodigy | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…0dabbacked Most Wanted | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Most Wanted | 50c | 94.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Most Wanted | 71c | 93.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Most Wanted | 48c | 85.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Most Wanted | 53c | 84.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed VP.Prodigy | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Most Wanted | 78c | 77.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Most Wanted | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 73.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Most Wanted | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Most Wanted | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Most Wanted | 73c | 66.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Most Wanted | 76c | 65.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked VP.Prodigy | 35c | 59.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 52.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…021bbacked Most Wanted | 80c | 50.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Most Wanted | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Most Wanted | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Most Wanted | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…a072backed Most Wanted | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Most Wanted | 80c | 33.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…8a38backed Most Wanted | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Most Wanted | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked Most Wanted | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed Most Wanted | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Most Wanted | 45c | 22.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…3b3cbacked Most Wanted | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Most Wanted | 74c | 18.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerMost Wanted won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.