Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2518defe5ee8263ffb07040ac40421a310ddd6b2f8f91546806cc8997a19c16a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 78c | 786.25$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 735.37$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 24c | 587.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 514.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 298.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 282.37$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 217.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 211.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 189.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 180.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 176.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 29c | 170.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 31c | 157$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 133.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 22c | 132.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 72c | 125.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 34c | 118.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 114$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 23c | 91.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 75c | 72.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 70.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 67.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…adddbacked No | 75c | 61.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 60.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 54.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 50.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 40.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 45c | 32.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 24.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e17…5ff5backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 13.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.