Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9497e1469bfdf286f449c5ce85fc5350a414429a3e9c7abceec857ff7cba58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 64c | 899.37$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 37c | 836.19$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 747.18$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 65c | 659.71$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 595.84$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 41c | 524.6$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 79c | 420.31$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 323.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 65c | 319.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 39c | 306.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 73c | 260$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 76c | 239.74$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 76c | 226.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 226.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 216.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 211.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 196.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 62c | 194.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 187.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 167.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 75c | 167.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 79c | 166.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 151.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 41c | 151$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 150.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 44c | 145.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 144$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 46c | 129.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 109.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 44c | 104.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 100.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 38c | 99.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 65c | 95.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 94.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 93.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 65c | 89.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 87.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 37c | 82.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 45c | 79.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 31c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 13c | 76.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 62c | 74.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 74.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 63c | 71.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked Yes | 62c | 64.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 61.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 41c | 60.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 59.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 58.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 58.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a1b8backed Yes | 73c | 54.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 42c | 47.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 77c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 41.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 42c | 40.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 48c | 38.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 29c | 37.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 43c | 36.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 42c | 35.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 35.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 38c | 34.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 50c | 33.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 33.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 51c | 33.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 42c | 33.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 73c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 58c | 31.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 43c | 31.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 29.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 36c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 47c | 29.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked Yes | 43c | 29.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 29.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.